This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 1-1, 0.85 RWBucks
Season: 102-110-8, -11.61 RWBucks
After a masterful pitching showcase in Game 3, I see the possibility of a lot more offense in Game 4 due to the pitching matchups.
Astros at Braves, World Series, Game 4
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke vs. Drew Smyly (primary pitcher)
The Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 3 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Astros over 4.5 total runs (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 3 RWBucks
Greinke has only made two appearances this postseason, and the most recent didn't go well. The veteran right-hander was chased after 1.1 innings by the Red Sox in the ALDS. Greinke also scuffled during the second half of the season, posting a 3-3 record, 5.34 ERA and bloated 2.3 HR/9 during that span. Some current Braves bats with plenty of pop have enjoyed success against him in the past as well — Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Dansby Swanson, who slugged a combined 210 extra-base hits between them this season, have all hit .286 or better against him during his career.
Houston is likely to score its fair share of runs if it gets a crack at Smyly for multiple frames. While the veteran lefty had an impressive 11-4 record this regular season, he also posted a 1.9 HR/9 and has allowed a .353 average and 10 XBH to Houston's own powerful quartet of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. The Astros also led MLB with 25.8 weighted runs above average against lefties on the road this season, and Smyly could find trouble in both opposite- and same-handed matchups after yielding .285 and .263 averages to left- and right-handed hitters, respectively, this season.
The stage is set for some offense, particularly home runs, and both bullpens could certainly also be a bit fatigued.
