MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Starter/Relievers Part 2

MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Starter/Relievers Part 2

A while back, I examined how several pitchers who split their time between starting and relieving performed. Once I was done with the article, I felt several other pitchers needed a look, so I decided to analyze eight more of them. Besides Tanner Houck and Nestor Cortes, I was disappointed in the group and it might be tough to roster any of them outside the deepest of leagues. 

While some of these arms might be rosterable as relievers, I will never draft or roster a reliever early on who has no chance for saves. I need to either be looking for starters with changes in talent or adding setup men in shaky bullpens. There can't be an easy-to-find middle reliever clogging up one of those precious roster spots. They are always on the waiver wire and should be streamed for maximum value. 

Here's the full list from last time; the 65 pitchers who started five games and relieved in five games in 2021.

 As Starter    As Reliever    
NameGIPK/9WHIPERAGIPK/9WHIPERA
Adbert Alzolay21106.19.11.25.16819.19.80.931.4
Adrian Sampson5246.81.083511.17.91.062.38
Alec Mills2099.16.51.384.81219.26.91.736.41
Andrew Heaney2312010.51.275.4879.29.31.9710.24
Anthony Kay520.111.11.484.43613.19.51.957.43
Cal Quantrill

A while back, I examined how several pitchers who split their time between starting and relieving performed. Once I was done with the article, I felt several other pitchers needed a look, so I decided to analyze eight more of them. Besides Tanner Houck and Nestor Cortes, I was disappointed in the group and it might be tough to roster any of them outside the deepest of leagues. 

While some of these arms might be rosterable as relievers, I will never draft or roster a reliever early on who has no chance for saves. I need to either be looking for starters with changes in talent or adding setup men in shaky bullpens. There can't be an easy-to-find middle reliever clogging up one of those precious roster spots. They are always on the waiver wire and should be streamed for maximum value. 

Here's the full list from last time; the 65 pitchers who started five games and relieved in five games in 2021.

 As Starter    As Reliever    
NameGIPK/9WHIPERAGIPK/9WHIPERA
Adbert Alzolay21106.19.11.25.16819.19.80.931.4
Adrian Sampson5246.81.083511.17.91.062.38
Alec Mills2099.16.51.384.81219.26.91.736.41
Andrew Heaney2312010.51.275.4879.29.31.9710.24
Anthony Kay520.111.11.484.43613.19.51.957.43
Cal Quantrill221217.41.153.121828.26.91.291.88
Caleb Smith135710.31.66.953256.29.41.152.7
Carlos Hernandez1158.15.91.253.551327.111.91.353.95
Chad Kuhl14677.81.364.431413.111.51.86.75
Chase Anderson936.16.71.546.94511.26.21.296.17
Chi Chi Gonzalez188751.526.62614.24.91.575.52
Collin McHugh71290.580305210.71.021.9
Cristian Javier948.210.71.033.142752.212.31.333.93
David Price1141.17.41.163.922832.16.71.764.18
Dinelson Lamet929.19.51.433.991317.213.21.585.09
Drew Rasmussen104260.761.93253411.91.473.97
Drew Smyly23115.28.51.384.756116.51.271.64
Garrett Richards22110.17.11.655.221826.19.61.373.42
Humberto Castellanos73451.445.56711.27.71.23.09
Jake Woodford8375.81.414.141830.27.61.273.82
Jakob Junis627.110.21.244.6110127.51.756.75
J.C. Mejia1142.17.71.89.786109.90.81.8
Jeff Hoffman11457.81.675.2202812.91.433.54
Jesus Luzardo1885.19.31.616.2271091.79.9
John Gant2189.27.31.574.421820.18.41.232.66
Jorge Lopez25113.18.11.686.3588.110.80.962.16
Jose Quintana103513.12.068.23192810.91.324.18
Jose Suarez14717.51.284.44927.18.61.11.98
Jose Urena18835.91.635.96817.26.61.475.09
Josh Fleming1156.16.21.516.2315484.91.173.75
Justin Steele943.27.81.444.951113.114.21.052.03
Justus Sheffield1573.27.21.786.4866.25.42.5510.8
Keegan Akin17777.61.656.97188.51.285.5
Keegan Thompson616.17.71.95.512637101.32.43
Kolby Allard1791.26.61.215.4153310.11.455.45
Kris Bubic20103.281.414.77926.17.51.293.08
Kwang Hyun Kim2196.26.91.273.636105.41.41.8
Martin Perez221007.71.524.7714147.71.434.5
Matt Moore1356.18.11.76.551116.26.51.25.4
Matt Peacock8346.41.685.292752.14.51.494.64
Matt Shoemaker1150.261.587.2859.25.62.0712.1
Michael King624.27.31.585.471638.29.81.092.33
Michael Wacha23107.18.61.264.53617.19.91.628.31
Nestor Cortes1473.19.21.063.07819.212.81.122.29
Paolo Espino19867.51.294.51623.27.60.933.42
Randy Dobnak634.13.71.466.29816.17.21.7110.47
Ranger Suarez1265.28.91.081.512740.19.40.871.12
Reiss Knehr515.15.31.436.46713.27.21.543.29
Reynaldo Lopez937.181.134.11120.19.70.642.21
Riley Smith6252.91.767.921842.161.354.89
Ross Detwiler57.210.62.2215.264844.210.71.052.82
Ross Stripling1986.18.81.274.6951561.275.4
Ryan Weathers1869.16.51.536.361225.17.80.992.49
Ryan Yarbrough211176.71.265.469387.11.114.03
Sam Hentges12417.91.957.91827.210.41.524.88
Sammy Long522.19.31.214.43718.17.41.366.87
Sean Nolin517.28.21.75.65941.672
Spenser Watkins10466.31.677.6368.23.11.8510.38
Tanner Houck1358.211.21.133.68510.112.21.162.61
Taylor Hearn11516.51.295.823153.19.31.353.54
Taylor Widener13619.41.394.28109.18.71.824.82
Trevor Williams1568.28.81.514.33822.19.31.434.43
Tyler Alexander1566.271.223.382639.27.91.344.54
Wade LeBlanc937.15.11.584.34911.26.21.24.63
Zach Thompson1463.27.81.153.251211.18.71.593.18

Cristian Javier

Javier's performance was essentially the same as a starter (4.30 xFIP) and as a reliever (4.40 xFIP). He's basically just a fastball (12 SwStr%, 28 GB%) and slider (20 SwStr%, 20 GB%) and toys with a below-average curve and change. The reliance on two pitches can be seen with his 3.01 xFIP the first time through the order and a 6.32 xFIP the second time. The difference also comes to the front with a 5.82 ERA as a starter and a 3.54 ERA as a reliever. Additionally, his 12.5 BB% is way too much to stomach. I'm sure some people want Javier to join the Astros' rotation, but I'm not one. He needs to remain in the bullpen.  

Dinelson Lamet

While Lamet was decent in 2020 (0.86 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 2.09 ERA), he fell apart in 2021 (1.49 WHIP, 4.40 ERA). He was fine as a starter (3.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), but began the season on the IL with a forearm injury and missed most of July and August with the same injury. While on the IL the second time, he hurt his hip, extending the stay. 

While his velocity was down from 2020 (97.1 mph to 95.5 mph), it was in line with the previous seasons. In 12 innings after returning, he struggled with a 6.39 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. He had no idea where the ball was going as evidenced by his 7.8 BB/9. The few times Lamet is on the mound, he'll generate strikeouts, but the rest of his game cannot be predicted.

Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen was a completely different pitcher when starting and relieving, even though the results ended up the same. As a reliever, he had a 11.9 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. Those drop to 6.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 as a starter. Also as a starter, he was able to post a 50 GB% to help limit the long ball. There was a ton going on with his profile and it's best shown in the following graph (i.e. varying pitch mix, declining fastball velocity).

(Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/drew-rasmussen/25385/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=274,267,268&legend=1,2,3,4&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2021&rtype=single&gt1=5&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=)

As a reliever he was fastball (11 SwStr%, 50 GB%) dependent, but backed off it as a starter by throwing his slider (12 SwStr%, 48 GB%) and bringing back his pathetic curve (3 SwStr%, 17 GB%). He didn't go deep into games by only reaching five innings in half of his starts. Additionally, he more than doubled his xFIP from the first time through the order to the second (2.75 to 5.66). He's just not someone I want to count on starting. 

Justin Steele

He could just not transfer the success from relieving (2.57 xFIP and 14.2 K/9) to starting (4.71 xFIP and 7.8 K/9). His fastball lost a tick from 94.2 mph to 93 mph. Additionally, he threw his slider (14 SwStr%) significantly less often while upping his curve (11% SwStr%) usage. The drop in strikeouts weren't a killer; it was the walks (4.1 BB/9) leading to a 1.44 WHIP. He's unrosterable with the high walk rate.

Martin Perez

Perez consistently shows just enough talent to suck everyone in and then commences to blow up. In 2021, he showed some promise in May with a 2.60 ERA (3.73 xFIP) and a season-high 16 K-BB%. From June 1 on, he had a 5.68 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, which includes his time in the bullpen. He didn't improve enough out of the bullpen to be rosterable with a 4.20 xFIP. He couldn't even raise his strikeout rate relieving, with both ending up at 7.7 K/9. Continue to ignore. 

Nestor Cortes

On the surface, Cortes performed great as a starter with a 3.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP both helped by a .255 BABIP. Unlike many of the guys previewed, he has a decent three-pitch arsenal (fastball, cutter, slider) that allowed him to maintain a 9.2 K/9 when starter (12.8 K/9 while relieving). 

Home runs are going to continue being  an issue going forward with just a 27 GB%. This season it was just a 1.4 HR/9. In his three previous MLB seasons, his home run rate was at 3.9 HR/9, 2.2 HR/9 and 7.0 HR/9. He might have taken a step forward by raising his fastball velocity by 2.6 mph. If he keeps the velocity gains, his talent is around a 4.00 ERA pitcher. 

Paolo Espino

The 34-year-old Espino was serviceable out of the bullpen (3.42 ERA and 0.93 WHIP) and then the Nationals moved him to the rotation. Everything was going great with a 2.98 first half ERA and then it fell apart in the second half. He lost ~2 mph on his fastball. His ERA ballooned to 5.18. 

There is a glimmer of upside. He leans heavily on a bad fastball (55% usage, 5 SwStr%) and works in a worse changeup (3 SwStr%). His curve (16 SwStr%) and slider (13 SwStr%) are great and could be thrown more than a combined 40% of the time. 

Ross Stripling

Since being traded to the Blue Jays, Stripling has been horrible (5.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) with most of  his struggles coming from the long ball (1.8 HR/9). His 16 K%-BB% was comparable to that of Lance McCullers, Jameson Taillon, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. For the second year in a row, I can't understand why he throws his slider (10 SwStr%) and curve (6 Swstr%) more than his change (19 SwStr%). Additionally, he threw his home run producing fastball (23 GB%, 25 HR/FB%) a career-high 51% of the time. The sub-4.00 ERA pitcher from his time with the Dodgers is in there, but Stripling and the Jays need to find him. 

Sammy Long

It was a back-and-forth season for Long. While he was serviceable as a starter (4.43 ERA, 17 K%-BB%), he was horrible relieving (6.87 ERA, 3.9 BB/9). The Giants promoted him to different roles before sending him back to Triple-A, with Long never settling into one role. During those jumps, his average fastball had a 3-mph range. Also, his pitch mix was probably not ideal. He threw his curveball (10 SwStr%) more than his change (15 SwStr%). The glimpses of upside make him intriguing.

Tanner Houck

Simply, Houck could be an elite reliever with his fastball-slider combo, but he's still trying to make it in the rotation. And everything is going fine so far. While he throws his fastball and slider over 75% of the time, his splitter (17 SwStr%) and sinker (17 SwStr%) are decent third and fourth pitches. His 24 K-BB% as a starter is in the range of Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. His biggest drawback: the question of how deep he can go into games. He never threw over 90 pitches or went over 5.1 innings. In 13 starts, he only got one win. I won't be surprised if he's being drafted in the first five rounds in 2023 if he can consistently work up to around 100 pitches.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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